The Key Concepts Of Risk Analysis

In carrying out risk analysis one important thing to do is to stay calm, because a mind that is not calm cannot really think very rationally or clearly. Even under fire, one must decide with calmness in order not to make decisions that are too rough and rash. One must master the art of calmness under the tensions of frustration, threats and storms of situations in order not to end up with the expensive consequences of rash decisions. When risk analysis is carried out by organizations or consultants on a system, they focus on weighing consequences on their financial capacities and operations. When risk analysis is carried out by doctors on treatment options, they look at survival rates, patient’s preferences, pains, legal factors and of course technical competences. The concept of risk analysis has evolved into a field of practice and specialization in virtually every profession like financial risk management, environmental impact assessment, hazard assessment in Health Safety and Environment, reliability engineering, stress test on sensitive facilities nuclear and explosive facilities and so on. One way banks manage risks is to peg their borrowing capacity based on not more than a very conservative percentage of depositors’ money and their stabilization funds say 10%. This implies taking on the biggest risk component head on. The same applies to most human endeavors. The risk must be narrowed to the most manageable to be chosen. A career that counts and a life that is lived with all the challenges humankind faces is not one with an absence of risk but one with a good sense of risks and the associated challenges that comes with taking it. A person must grow to the point of mastering risks and knowing the challenges to venture and those to simply snub.

You must have to be strong at some points in your life to take certain weird and strong decisions risk more disastrous consequences. These are things that help redefine the quality of our lives and personalities by acting as furnaces for refining our lives. Just like an investor must let go some money in order to be rich enough to enjoy the opulence he dreams of, a person desirous of a quality life will have to take some tough decisions too at different points in time for a meaningful life of rich mix of challenges, victories and testimonies.

A quality career and life is one that counts with risks, losses and gains. Sometimes we only need to experience how tough things are on the other side to be able to think and act in the right frame of mind and be able to be happy with ourselves much later. An eventful life is one with ups and down with good, bad and ugly moments one have to look back in time to and laugh or feel good or bad. Our lives are colored by both the mistakes and great steps we take. It doesn’t have to be all correct but it has to be mostly correct. The life and career that counts must be one that is good at recognizing and managing risks for the overall good and best of all involved. It makes a lot of sense when we know how to take risks by measuring the conditions and situations of things. Great gamblers and businessmen are simply great risk takers. Finally, in talking and managing risk decisions, we must not throw instinct out of the window. You don’t ignore the human aspect of you as per the non-logics based but uncanny urge to do certain things in certain ways that rings in our mind. The reason is that the technical decisions we make are limited in a great extent to experience but there are still other dimensions to existence such as the spiritual which must be considered too. It’s not only that which the eyes can see that exist. Take sensible risks that leave you at peace with your mind and your conscience. Leaving any out is not healthy and needs to be avoided. The need to have a sense of instinct is very key to the extrusion of human genius and creativity. Let not your risk analysis bring fear upon you but rather let it lessen your fears for everything you know more about becomes less of a threat or fear to you.

Estimate the result

One of the best of all exercises, in every situation involving uncertainty, is to assess and evaluate the worst possible outcome. Ask yourself, “What could possibly go wrong in this situation?” Estimating the worst case scenario is an apt and best decision for progress. Know fully that what may turn out to be good tendencies to turn out bad. Unfortunately these days, people are carried out with the good fortune expected without putting into consideration for if anything should go wrong. Preparing a space for the other side should be prioritized and given recognition in achieving a task. It helps you not to fall out totally when great tragedy struck. It enable you take your alternative plan to make things work.

As you prepare for greatness, putting all eggs in one basket may not work out for you as it seldom does, there is need for you to prepare for the unexpected then, and you will see what people refer to as shocks of life like an engine that accelerates success. Murphy Law Says: “Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.” There are several secondary laws to Murphy’s Law, such as “Whatever can go wrong will go wrong at the worst possible time” and “Of all the things that can go wrong, the most expensive thing will go wrong at the worst possible time.”

Men and women who have achieved a high level of success are intensely realistic. They do not put their trust in luck. They carefully calculate every possible risk, and then think about what they would do should it occur. They always have a backup plan in case things do not go as they wish them to. They have a “Plan B” and options to that plan that take all kinds of variables into consideration.

Successful individuals engage in strategic thinking. They minimize risk by continually questioning their assumptions and asking themselves what they would do in the case of unanticipated delays, cost overruns or unexpected actions. They are seldom caught unprepared because they have thought through the kind of uncertainties that create unacceptable risks — risks they cannot afford to take.

In dealing with risk, a mild degree of anticipation which I will rather not refer to as fear is often very helpful because it keeps you alert and aware of what might go wrong. The problem with fear is that most people have it to an excess and are, therefore, paralyzed by their fears rather than motivated by their opportunities.

The “golden mean”

The Greek philosopher Aristotle said that all virtues are located on what he called the “golden mean” between two vices. The virtue of courage, or the willingness to take risks, is located between these two vices: cowardice on one end and impetuousness on the other. Your job is to straddle this golden mean and to strike a happy balance between acting impetuously, without thought, and not acting at all, allowing fear to govern your emotions and actions.

You learn how to take intelligent risks without fear by taking intelligent risks, and then by analyzing what happened. When you have clearly identified the risk involved, you can plan and prepare to maximize your opportunities while minimizing those risks. The more positive you feel about yourself, the more effective you will be in everything you undertake. You can see the need why a positive mental attitude is essential? Your ability to confidently take calculated risks in the direction of your goals will ultimately lead you toward success.

Learn and learn from experts

One of the problems with the youth today is the attitude towards learning. African youth to be precise.

Learning is a process that builds up great people. To be great, certain things must be known, this requires you having a knowledge that people would ever look up to gain from. But the knowledge can only be acquired through thorough learning process. You can’t do without learning to be at the top of your game. The unknown to be known requires a first-hand soul to discover it. And when such things are discovered, the first-hand soul is regarded as a genius. Even at this age where artificial intelligence is taking the lead, one needs to be swift also to learn to be relevant.

To be successful, your first job is to learn what you need to learn in order to achieve the success you desire. And you can only learn that thing by going through existing resources prepared by other people. This people can be referred to as experts, guru and other names due to their achievements and contributions. As a new entrant in any sector or field you want to delve into, you need to leverage on the works done by people before you. Learn from the experts. Read their books. Listen to their audio programs. Attend their seminars. Follow them on social media. Mail them or approach them directly and ask them for advice.

Sometimes, one idea is all you need to change the direction of your life. Let me give you an example of what I mean: Some years ago, Tracy was referred by a friend to an excellent dentist. He learned later that he had a superb reputation. He was called the “dentist’s dentist.” He was the dentist that the other dentists went to when they needed excellent dental work. He told me that he attended every major dental conference that he could. When he was there, he attended every session, listening to dentists from all the over the country, and all over the world, discuss the latest breakthroughs in dental technology. One week, at great sacrifice in time and money, he attended an international dental conference in Hong Kong. At that conference, he sat in on a session given by a Japanese dentist who had discovered a new technology in cosmetic surgery that improved the appearance of teeth and enabled people to look handsome or beautiful indefinitely. He returned to San Diego and immediately began using the new technique in his practice. Soon, he became excellent in this area and developed a national reputation. Within a couple of years, people were coming to him from all over southwestern United States for this treatment. Because he had developed this expertise, he could raise his fees again and again. Eventually, he had made so much money that he was able to retire at the age of fifty-five, financially independent and able to spend the rest of his life with his family, traveling and fulfilling his dreams. The point of this story is that, by continually seeking out ideas and advice from other experts in his field, he came across a new technology that helped him become the leader in his field and saved him ten years of hard work in order to reach the same level of financial success. You can also learn and improve the methods of unpopular professionals too by doing what they fail to include making their skills perfect. Like I said earlier, unsuccessful people are just some skills away from their success. So you can in grand style include what they are leaving out. So you can as well top the game, but only by becoming a lifelong student of your craft.

Read

Reading is educating, fun and entertaining. Developing reading habit is crucial for the success, self-confidence and exposure you would always wish. The more informed and knowledgeable you are, the more confident you will be. Let’s take an example. Mr. Y and Mr. Z work in the same office and both have been asked to prepare the annual report, which is to be presented in the upcoming meeting. Mr. Y has somehow prepared the report, but, he is not clear about the facts. On the other hand, Mr. Z has read and researched thoroughly. He is clear about everything included in the report and also has facts and figures to support him. Who do you think will be more confident? Mr. Z of course. So here comes the advice part. Read as many good books as you can; not just related to your Career or job, but other fields as well. Read books on marketing, management, accounting, spirituality, metaphysics, investing, banking, business or whatever interests you. Reading books from diverse areas gives you a wider and more open perspective which helps you survive social debates.

Make it a habit to carry a book around so you can utilize your unproductive time. Unproductive time is the time you need to spend on waiting when you visit public offices, in traffic, when you get to an event before time or at the bank. Reading at such times is a powerful strategy to increase your knowledge in very short span of time. Technology has made everything easy, you can download e-books as well on your feature phones to serve yourself. Becoming a member of a good library is also not bad. A library offers wide range of books to choose from. This way you can read a lot without spending much money. Orison Marden once asked Thomas Edison "Were you good at saving your own money?" "No," he said, smiling. "I never was much for saving money, I devoted every cent, regardless of future needs, to scientific books and materials for experiments. Well, it helped me greatly to future success."

Robert Kiyosaki read the book “The 16 Percent Solution” by Joel Moskowitz. He bought the book and read it and did exactly as the book said. His neighbor told him why 16 percent would not work. But he did not listen to him because he has never done it. He went to the county tax office and found the government employee who worked in that office. He found out that she, too, invested in the tax liens. Immediately, He invited her to lunch. She was thrilled to tell me everything she knew and how to do it. After lunch, she spent all afternoon showing her everything. By the next day, He found two great properties with her help that have been accruing interest at 16 percent ever since. It took a day to read the book, a day to take action, an hour for lunch, and a day to acquire two great deals.

Most people do not take action, or they let someone talk them out of whatever new formula they are studying. “The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who can't read them.” Mark Twain

The secret of gratitude

"If it is a new thought to you that gratitude brings your whole mind into closer harmony with the creative energies of the Universe, consider it well, and you will see that it is true." Marci Shimoff

What can you do right now to begin to turn your life around? The very first thing is to start making a list of things to be grateful for. This shifts your energy and starts to shift your thinking. Whereas before this exercise you might be focusing what you don't have, your complaints, and your problems, you go in a different direction when you do this exercise. You start to be grateful for all the things that you feel good about.

Gratitude is absolutely the way to bring more goodness to your life. It is impossible to bring more into your life if you are feeling ungrateful about what you have. Why? Because the thoughts and feelings you emit as you feel ungrateful are all negative emotions. Whether it is jealousy, resentment, dissatisfaction, or feelings of "not enough," those feelings cannot bring you what you want. They can only return to you more of what you do not want. Those negative emotions are blocking your own good coming to you. If you want a new car but you are not grateful for the car you have, that will be the dominant frequency you are sending out.

Be grateful for what you have now. As you begin to think about all the things in your life you are grateful for, you will be amazed at the never-ending thoughts that come back to you of more things to be grateful for. Feeling ungrateful is a manner of seeing things around you in significant. A life that is void of gratitude should not be expectant of new things. You have to make a start, and then the law of attraction will receive those grateful thoughts and give you more just like them. You will have locked into the frequency of gratitude and all good things will be yours."