The Definition Of Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias. What is it? It’s a tendency and trait that many people seem to possess. But what really is it? In simple terms, it’s basically a way for someone to confirm their beliefs or opinions through newly found evidence. It is also a way for them to reject information that goes against their beliefs. In my essay, I will be looking more into this trait and finding out why people do it through the studies conducted at Stanford in Kolbert’s (2018) article along with Reynolds’s (2018) studies on the topic of fake news and confirmation bias. Along with this, I will also be arguing against confirmation bias by finding out ways on how we as a society can discourage it and possibly even avoiding it all together with the support of Alex’s TED Talk (2017).

Confirmation Bias is a trait that many people tend to develop as they grow. People can find the evidence they use to support their beliefs through many outlets. It can be commonly found through social media, news, and television. It is very common today especially with the use of social media. News spreads around faster than ever before today thanks to it. Examples of social media include Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Many people use it and you can post and share something with millions of people within a matter of a few seconds. In Reynolds’s article, she uses the example of Twitter and its ‘retweet’ system. People will tend to share something if they find it fascinating or eye-catching, but not everything they share can be reliable or true. An example of this would be comparing the size of the crowd in the Presidential Inauguration in 2008 and 2016. Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, claimed that Trump’s Inauguration drew record attendance, but it really didn’t. It was found to only be one-third the size of Obama’s Inauguration and was easily disproven through photographs.

Now, why did this happen? An expert in Reynolds’s article named Van Bavel argues that the political party you’re associated with can influence your decisions. He also argues that the party you choose can have an impact on your character identity. If people find a threat to a particular candidate or position, they may perceive it as a threat to their selves. Van Bavel claims that sticking to a particular group or belief and getting information that contradicts what you know can construct new ways of thinking about that information rather than updating your previous beliefs.

Another reading to back up the reasoning for confirmation of Bias would be Kolberts’s article. Her article mainly relies on the studies conducted at Stanford University as well as three books that she briefly mentions. The studies were first done at Stanford and were conducted on undergraduate students. The studies consisted of many different scenarios with things such as suicide notes and packets. At the end of each test, it was revealed that each scenario was totally fictitious, but the students were still asked to describe their own beliefs. The two groups had two completely different opinions and they held on to those opinions even though they found evidence that goes against their beliefs. The researchers at Stanford specifically noted, “for their beliefs has been totally refuted, people fail to make appropriate revisions in those beliefs,” and found the failure to be impressive since the data points didn’t have enough information to generalize from. The experiments conducted became so famous that it resulted in thousands of other similar experiments being done.

In the same article, Kolbert references the book, “The Enigma of Reason” (Harvard) which tries to answer the question of why reasonable-seeming people are often irrational. The book revolves around two scientists, Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, and they make plenty of arguments and reasoning throughout their research. One of the first arguments they make is that our biggest advantage against other species is our ability to cooperate. They say that it is difficult to establish this ability and it is almost as difficult to sustain. Mercier and Sperber also argue that reasoning wasn’t made for logical or abstract thinking, but that is made to resolve problems caused by living in collaborative groups. The scientists use the example of a mouse thinking the way we do, sticking to its own beliefs, and believing there are no cats around waiting to eat it for dinner. They also believe that confirmation bias is a trait we should have been against, but it serves as an adaptive function and is related to our “hyper sociability”.

Two professors that are also cognitive scientists, Steven Slowman (Brown) and Philip Fernbach (University of Colorado), also believe that sociability is the key to how the human mind functions. The two professors wrote a book, “The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone” (Riverhead), and explain this sociability to us with toilets. The study was conducted at Yale and students were asked to rate their understanding of everyday devices. The students found the use of toilets to be harder than they thought, and this is called the “illusion of explanatory depth”. This theory basically means that people think they know more than they actually do, and they persist in this through other people. It’s something humans have always been good at since we needed to rely on each other’s expertise when we first figured out how to hunt together.

Confirmation bias obviously isn’t a good habit to have like it as you may not always make the best choices, however, there are ways to lead you away from it and possibly even avoiding it together. As mentioned in Reynolds’s article, one way we can avoid further developing this skill is by teaching logical thinking. Logical thinking can be taught at around the high school and college level as most of those who are impacted are teens. At this point teens are still developing and teaching these skills early on could allow them to take in more of what they’re learning since they are still exploring lots of ideas and skills. Alex points out a lot of good tips in his talk and they could also help in avoiding confirmation bias. As humans, we shouldn’t just stay in our own little bubble and keep our own beliefs. Actively seeking other viewpoints and being open to the possibility of being wrong is something that we should learn to practice. One of the main factors of confirmation bias is social media. Many people abuse the use of it. A lot of the things we share could potentially be “contagious” and harmful so we should take our time and pause before sharing anything. I believe that if we take our time and begin teaching these skills at an early age, we can reduce the amount of confirmation bias being used and potentially even remove the idea completely in the foreseeable future.