Looming Conflict In Israeli-Iranian Relations And Its Influence On Other Countries

A new chapter is opening in Israeli-Iranian relations. A proxy conflict is building up, as Iran has been building military bases in Syrian territories, to keep weapons and troops. These bases are close to Damascus and dangerously close to the Israeli border and the Golan Heights. Israel is trying to send a clear message to Iran that it will not tolerate such bases, and it is waging preemptive aerial attacks to destroy them. In September 2017 Israeli jets bombed many factories that built rockets and missiles in northwestern Syrian territory. Israel and Iran are trying to avoid a direct confrontation, but they are trying to outperform each other’s capacities in land, sea, and air. If Syrians stopped tolerating Israeli airstrikes and started retaliating, the situation would quickly get out of hand. Meanwhile, fighting in Syria is coming to an end, and ISIS has been defeated: this means that Iranian help to fight the war on the ground is less and less needed. Iran knows this, and for this reason it knows that if it wants to create permanent bases in Syria, it must act now. About 9,000 members of Iranian militias are fighting in Syria. This is not a big number for Israel, but it may be the beginning of a permanent Iranian presence in Syria, from which Iran can later increase its facilities. Once a physical presence is established, Iran can eventually expand its facilities. Israel has limited territory and limited resources, including a limited Jewish population, for this reason it has always relied on the US in the international arena. Since 1973, Israel has never had such a dilemma as the one posed today by Iranian activity in the Israeli-Syrian border. Now the threat comes not only from Hizbullah in the North, but also from the Golan Heights. The geopolitical status quo would dramatically change in case Iran manages to establish permanent military bases in Syria.

Even though Israel has air superiority in comparison with Iran, if the Islamic republic does not back down, air attacks will not be sufficient for the tiny Jewish State. For example, in 2006 Israel did not manage to annihilate Hizbullah through its airstrikes. Ground forces were needed but Israel, unwilling to risk the lives of its soldiers in a long war of attrition, renounced. Similarly, Israel will have to choose whether to mobilize its army on the ground sooner or later, to stop Iranian expansion in the Levant. Iran has learned to fight a long war of attrition in the 1980s against Iraq, but Israel, due to its small population, is better at short military campaigns. Israel must find alternative methods to face the threat posed by Lebanon, Iran, and Syria. Allies are vital for the tiny state in order to survive. The historical ally of Israel, the United States, would have to commit to yet another war in the Middle East and this is something the US is probably no longer willing to do, even with the Trump administration’s renewed commitment to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US attempt to find a balance between religious communities and Kurds in Iraq resulted in sectarian strife and an independentist Kurdistan. Washington’s attempt to overthrow Bashar’s government through proxy jihadist militias also backfired. Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, are only a few of numerous failures of American policy in the Middle East and Asia. American hegemony is being challenged in Asia and Eastern Europe. Trump’s choice to recognize the city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has been a symbolic gesture to reassure Israel of the US commitment to the Middle East without actually doing anything on the ground. Washington now is attempting to flee the Middle East militarily speaking, and focus on Russia and China. This leaves Israel alone. Although the country is well capable of safeguarding its interests, Israel requires US support in case of full-blown conflict. But, considering American disinterest in the region, Israel must find new allies. In recent times, as Iran expanded its hegemony, Israel has found increasing common ground with Saudi Arabia. Once in opposition to each other, the two states now are coming together due to geopolitical necessity.

Today, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is surrounded, just like Israel, by hostile polities, who have close ties with Iran. As such, the Saudis desperately seek to reverse the situation and cooperating with Israel would bring many advantages. Besides the common objective, collaboration between Israel and the KSA brings other advantages. By getting closer to some Arab states, Israel gains legitimacy and acceptance in its neighborhood, essential for its welfare. As for Saudi Arabia, cooperating with Israel helps securing more advanced weapons from the USA. So there are several mutual benefits in a Israeli-Saudi alliance. That said, neither side is making open diplomatic overtures towards the other, as the political leaders fear opposition from the population. For this reason any cooperation will probably remain restricted to intelligence sharing in the near future.

As for Turkey, relations between Netanyahu and Erdogan, despite the public rhetoric, are good in a strategic sense: but Ankara shares many interests also with Tehran. Turkey does not feel threatened by Iran, so it has no interest to betray the friendship. If and when this situation will change, Israel will be able to get closer to Turkey to protect itself against Iran.