Revising EU’s Neighbourhood Policy in light of the wars in Georgia and Ukraine

Executive summary

European neighbourhood policy, as a main framework of EU in its relations with neighbouring countries, aims to support partner states in development process and make EU’s neighbourhood more stable and peaceful. However, dynamic changes in its neighbourhood made EU more unsecure and underlined the limitations of ENP. After revising twice, ENP still needs to improve its policies and instruments.

Current paper focuses on eastern neighbourhood. If failed to introduce and develop new encouraging instruments and policies, EU will lose its power in eastern neighbours. Further incentives are necessary in order to keep these states on the road of democratisation. Even through membership of EU was not promised, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova remained strong toward integration in EU. Main reason for that was Association Agreement and DCFTA as a final step of integration. Now ENP has nothing to propose and need for new policies are very clear and visible.

In the context of ongoing tensions in Georgia around occupation line, annexation of Crimea, on-going conflict in east Ukraine, internal tensions in Belarus, EU should make security dimension one of the main priorities in its relations with eastern neighbours. Without reaching a stability inside these states, sustainable development is fated to fail. More unstable situation near its borders, makes EU unsecure and there is a probability of spreading this instability into EU. Taking into account Eurasian Union and Russia’s role in shared neighbourhood, EU should work more actively on its image in these countries and develop more deep and interest-based policy.

Background

European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was introduced as a result of EU 2004 enlargement. Under this policy EU supports development process in neighbouring countries through democratisation and liberal economic reforms. While promoting its own values, norms and development model, EU makes its external borders more peaceful and safe, therefore making itself more stable internally. 16 neighbours from east and south are including in ENP1. After several challenges and crisis in its south and east neighbourhood, ENP, as the main cooperation framework between EU and its neighbours, proved to be unsuccessful. Responding the major challenges in its neighbourhood, ENP was revised twice.

First time after Arab Spring in 2010-2011. As a result EU paid more attention toward promotion of democracy and developed a new approach,,more for more” according to which EU strengthens its cooperation with countries making more progress in the field of democratic reforms.

Second, After Ukraine Crisis in 2014-2015. As a result, EU puts more emphasis on the principle of differentiation acknowledging the necessity of individual approach toward each state2. Under ENP, EU developed regional cooperation initiatives for better and flexible partnership with its neighbours.

Paper focuses on Eastern Partnership (EaP, 2009) which unites 6 states from east neighbourhood and represents the main cooperation instrument between EU and eastern neighbours3. Annexation of Crimea, on-going conflict in east Ukraine, situation in Syria, on-going tensions in Georgia around occupation line, internal difficulties in all neighbour states and several so-called,,frozen conflicts” in post-soviet space make EU’s neighbourhood more unstable and fragile than 15 years ago. This situation also underlines the necessity to revise the ENP.

Analysis

Already existing cooperation instruments, that neighbourhood policy is using, are limited for several reasons. ENP does not intend and does not promise partner states membership of EU. Enlargement process, which is currently very weak and not supported by EU leaders, is the main instrument of European integration and most effective also. Without membership perspective, it is more difficult for EU to put this region into its own value-based system and spread in this area European legal and institutional system.

For Georgia, for example, membership of European Union, does not only represents country’s foreign policy strategy and main goal, but also appears to be the main driving force for political and economic reforms in the country. Therefore, lack of encouraging instruments contributes to the less positive democratization process and slower implementation of reforms. For partner states, aspiring EU membership, perspective of EU enlargement will be a strong prerequisite for quick and effective process of reformation. In the context of low support for enlargement, new incentive policies could be introduced and developed in order to keep Ukraine and Georgia on the road of democratisation.

Economic prosperity is one of the main instrument of EU through which it attracts partner states and encourages them for deeper cooperation. Implementing free and competitive market-based economy is difficult and painful process for EU neighbours, especially ex-soviet states witch used central planning economies. Among 6 member states of EaP, only Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova make strong commitments about economic reforms and implementing European economic legislature. Even through this process is difficult, deep and takes a time, for those countries free-market economy and European market is the main way of development and they are ready to follow EU’s conditions and implement painful reforms. However, this is not enough in the absence of any perspective of membership. Belarus and Armenia chose to integrate in Eurasian Union and opposed the implementation of number of economic reforms which could hit their leaders and elites. For those countries, who are still faithful to European values, some incentive mechanisms should be introduced and implemented. DCFTA is already functioning between European Union and Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. The same is about association agreement and visa-liberalisation. ENP/EaP already used all their resources toward these three countries.

New approaches and new instruments should be introduced and developed in order to maintain strong and deep integration process with states who aspire for the membership of EU. States, with noticeable progress, should be given possibility, when ready, to join EU’s certain policies. Joining European Economic Area (EEA) will be very strong motivation for partners and in this way it will be possible to postpone talks about EU membership, which itself is still painful issue for EU leadership.

Security dimension, which is very important for EU’s neighbours, is not adequately addressed under ENP. ENP largely represents the political and economic issues, with a less emphasis on social and environmental issues. Security dimension is very weak and before 2015 revise of ENP, it was not included in ENP. For most advanced partners, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, security is vital, especially considering the weak role of the Organization of security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE). One main reason why European policies are more successful in these countries than in case of other neighbours, is their security situation and conflict with Russia. However, EU’s ability to play decisive role in,,frozen conflicts” is minimal. EU does not want to be guarantee of security for these countries. However, EU needs to make security one of the main strategy toward these countries. EU needs to show and reflect in its policy toward neighbours that it has strong political will to help them solve their security related issues. EU should guide with the principle that sustainable development and democratization cannot be achieved in the context of on-going conflict or tensions. Through ENP, EU needs to introduce specific policies and instruments in order to help partners with post-conflict situation and negotiations and while doing this maintain peace and stability in these states which also means stability in its neighbourhood. EU needs to strengthen its efforts toward communication between people in conflict areas, toward confidence-building and toward necessary reforms to make state’s security institutions more effective and strong so that when needed, they could face challenges.

In addition, European Union Monitoring Mission still can’t fully fulfil its mission as it still can’t enter occupied territories of Georgia. In this regard, EU needs to develop and encourage dialogue between sides on the issue entering territory. EU needs to strengthen its role as mediator in conflict and develop new instrument for peaceful resolution and stability. ENP and also other EU policies toward neighbours are largely based on European understanding and vision. This means that European union is guiding with its own principles and tries to create a stable and peaceful neighbourhood through spreading its values and norms without considering neighbour’s intentions or interests. Developing policies based on adaptation of democratic values and liberal norms without considering partner’s interests in already proved to be ineffective. Situation in EU’s east and south neighbourhood makes it clear that European values and integration is not important for every partner state. Principle of conditionality which EU uses toward its relation with neighbours and partners, is effective and also successful only in countries which aspire EU membership. It should not be the central instrument in the relations between EU and neighbour states. Cooperation with neighbours should be based on common interests, such as energy, migration, environment, climate change. EU should introduce new cooperation frameworks based on common areas of cooperation with a specific aims.

For countries, such as Azerbaijan, Association Agreement and DCCFTA is not attractive nor important, but cooperation on energy issues would be beneficial for both, EU and Azerbaijan. Problem of neighbourhood policy in east is that partner states are implementing policies by themselves without EU intervening but based on EU condition. Therefore, they are more flexible and implement reforms based on their own preferences and speed. As a result, countries like Azerbaijan, Belarus and Armenia moved toward Russia and did not except Association Agreement with EU. European Union needs to make clear line in its policy between those interested in close relationship with EU and those who are not. With successful partners, EU needs to strengthen its pressure in order to make democratization process more effective and successful. Almost all member states of ENP have internal difficulties, including most successful ones (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova) that make implementation of reforms and certain policies difficult and in some extent under question. EU should increase its political, financial and technical support for these countries. Also, EU needs to strictly monitor the progress each of them is making and apply necessary actions when needed. By strengthening democracy in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, EU makes its east neighbourhood more stable and peaceful therefore contributing to its internal stability and peace.

Even in the case of successful partners, where integration process is actively remaining, democratic institutions are still weak and not yet ready to face challenges. EU needs to focus more on how to strengthen institutions. It needs to help partners to establish and build up relevant political culture and strong foundation so that it can avoid disintegration of these institutions in case of government change (institutions vulnerability toward government change is characteristic for ex-soviet states). What EU has to take into account is that the process of reform implementation is difficult, painful and takes a time. In the short-time period, as a result of new economic reforms, economic stagnation is inevitably. This makes population dissatisfied with existing government and may result in the disapproval toward reform implementation. State leaders may oppose these kind of reforms. To avoid such scenario, EU needs to work and support the process of enhancing democratic institutions. EU’s image in its neighbourhood is not as strong and positive as used to be. Even through EU’s,,soft power” is quite effective, especially in Ukraine and Georgia, it should not be forgotten that especially Russia and China also are very actively practicing their power in the region. In the absence of membership perspective, EU is still seen as a positive and majority of population of these countries believe that relations with EU is good for their country4. Even through Georgians have the most positive view on EU, statistical numbers in 2018 dropped compared to 2017 with 10 percent5. EU also lost its trust in Moldova due to its pro-European government and lack of real progress that they made. EU needs to continue to work toward its positive image in its neighbourhood investing more in practicing its,,soft power”. EU also should develop new policies and strengthen already functioning ones in the field of direct communication between people and EU. This will help to increase positive image of organization and trust in its activities. EU should also focus more on civil society and NGOs, including them not only in policy implementation process but also in monitoring process. This will increase their role and value and also encourage citizens to be more politically active and participate in decision making process in their countries. As a result, policy implementation and democratization process overall will be more transparent.

There is no common and shared political will inside the EU on number of issues. Internal disputes over EU’s role in its neighbourhood makes its instruments and policies not effective and has negative effect on the image of EU as a strong regional power. EU needs to work toward resolving internal uncertainty and incompatibility of interests regarding ENP. EU states should agree on common interests in neighbourhood, especially when it comes to incompatibility of stability and democracy in certain cases. EU should decide how it will continue its relations with south neighbourhood, giving priority to democratisation process or to stability in region through which it will avoid conflict and tensions in region. EU leaders also need to develop new vision toward neighbourhood that will be acknowledged and recognised by all members and will include policy mechanisms for long-time perspective. One more important issue is enlargement. EU should also work to develop common consensus regarding enlargement perspective.

Conclusion

ENP revise process is a good opportunity for EU to strengthen its image and position in neighborhood and therefore, remain a strong regional power. This opportunity also contributes to a safer and more stable neighborhood and on the one hand, deepens the relations between EU and close partner states, and on the other hand, sends political massage to all partner states showing them its normative, political and economic power.

Recommendations:

Current paper focused on European Neighborhood Policy, specifically on eastern dimension and analyzed already existing policy instruments. Based on above analysis, main recommendations are provided below:

• EU needs to develop new vision toward its partners which will be based on common interests and common areas of cooperation;
• EU needs to work toward common view on EU’s interests in neighborhood; develop a consensus on the issue of enlargement perspective; Show and reflect in relevant policies EU’s strong political will for cooperation with its neighbors and EU’s political will to help partners with their security problems;
• More for more principle should be maintained and strengthen;
• EU should increase its financial, political and technical support in order to strengthen democratic institutions, public administration, governance-related institutions;
• EU should put more pressure on Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in reform implementation, strictly monitor the progress and apply necessary actions when needed;
• EU needs to provide successful states (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), when ready, the possibility to join certain EU institutions. Most effective will be EEA which will be strong and incentive prerequisite for quick and full implementation of reforms;
• EU needs to strengthen its efforts and develop new instruments toward communication between people in conflicting areas. It should actively participate and encourage confidence-building process. EU should also provide partner states with relevant reforms in their security-related institutions and help them to make these institutions more effective, strong and flexible in order to be able to face challenges;
• EU needs to remain and strengthen its mediation role, encourage new dialogues addressing peaceful resolution, full implementation of ceasefire agreement and reaching stability;
• EU needs to focus more on its image in neighborhood. For this purpose, EU, on the one hand,

  should strengthen already existing mechanisms and instruments and, on the other hand, develop new policies of communication with people in partner states;

• EU needs to involve civil society, NGOs and other representatives of public sector not only in the process of reforms implementation but also in the monitoring process;
• EU needs to raise an issue of state funding of NGOs, research and educational centers in home countries making public sector and civil society stronger and more active with an important role in decision making process;
• EU needs to increase its human resources under ENP framework and actively involve them in implementation and monitoring process in partner states.