Fema'S Future Trends And Driving Forces In Wild Card Scenario

Wildcard scenarios also known as black swans are unforeseen events that were not expected to take place (Wade & Wade, 2012). Surprising events such as natural disasters, market crashes, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks reflect an organization’s inability to recognize evidence of new vulnerabilities or the existence of ineffective countermeasures ideology (Masys, 2012). Recent catastrophes such as Hurricane Katrina (2005) have illustrated the need to extend the time frame of the examination of disasters (Masys, 2012). As such, planning for and managing risk, crisis, and disasters require an understanding of the possibilities to avoid unrealistic expectations that can influence the management of disasters and catastrophes (Masys, 2012). Consequently, scenario planning is a tool used to explore the uncertainties and challenges associated with accident and disaster events (Masys, 2012).

Accordingly, the thought process involved in scenario planning consists of thinking the unthinkable exploring uncertainty and challenging mental models and assumptions to recognize alternate futures in the space of possibilities (Masys, 2012). To be able to deal with strategic surprises, it is essential to be aware of the two potential issues (Fukuyama, 2007). First, decision-makers tend to view sudden and significant shocks as most important when they are not (Fukuyama, 2007). Strategic surprises are game-changing events and they do not happen every year or even every decade (Fukuyama, 2007). Strategic surprises assess what assets needed to win when strengths become weaknesses, and vice versa (Fukuyama, 2007). The second issue is the notion that strategic surprise is difficult to identify (Fukuyama, 2007).

However, if significant uncertainties in the world are recognized and explored, important 3 trends can be seen and monitored as they occur which can increase leaders’ and organizations’ ability to act or persuade others to act (Fukuyama, 2007). Powerful drivers of change such as globalization, climate transformations, and technology advancement are reshaping society on a global level (FEMA, 2012). Addressing these changes is challenging and will require entirely new approaches, tools, and capabilities (FEMA, 2012). The current strategic environment is defined by borderless and unconventional threats, global challenges, and long-term trends (FEMA, 2012). Exploring what drivers could most significantly shape the future of emergency management entails an analytical framework used by organizations such as the U. S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) to identify macro-level factors that have significant influence in the world (FEMA, 2012).

These factors fall into five dimensions which are social, technological, environmental, economic, and political (STEEP) and changes in these magnitudes will necessitate creative and collaborative thinking and action (FEMA, 2012). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject, and form the standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). Correspondingly, the rapid changes in climate is a particular trend that will significantly impact FEMA in the next decade.

In particular, according to the United Nation Environmental 4 Panel (UNEP) (2007), climate change is strongly affecting many aspects of systems related to snow, ice, and frozen ground ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). Three is also evidence of changes in hydrological systems, water resources, coastal zones, and oceans ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). As a result, some of the effects due to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground include ground instability in permafrost regions, enlargement, and increase of glacial lakes in mountain regions, changes in the Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula flora, and changes in indigenous livelihoods in the Arctic ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). The effects of coastal erosion ar sea-level rise, powerful wave, and intensified storms in the coastal regions ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). Sealevel rise has contributed to losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves and increased damage from coastal flooding in many areas ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). The consequences to global warming trends include poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). Responses of terrestrial species to warming across the Northern Hemisphere are well documented by changes in the timing of growth stages, especially the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007).

Likewise, changes of certain species and changes in community opus and structure over the last few decades have been attributed to climate change ( United Nations Environmental Panel, 2007). These are the trends that will have a crucial effect on FEMA in the next ten years. Summary of Lead Predictable Forces with the Most Negative Impact Disaster trends are indicators that provide leaders and emergency management with clues about potential risk and help them with decisions related to emergency planning, analysis, 5 mitigation, and preparedness activities (FEMA, n. d. ). Disaster trends also show what changes are happening regarding disasters, and are helpful in determining the reason for the occurring changes (FEMA, n. d. ). Different environmental stressors such as pollution, ecosystem degradation, and resource depletion profoundly affect the planet and society (FEMA, n. d. ). However, climate change is still the dominant environmental force confronting the emergency management community in the United States (FEMA, n. d. ). Climate change impacts are expected to increase the severity, frequency, or scale of extreme weather events, droughts, floods, sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and the spread of life-threatening diseases (FEMA, n. d. ).

The most visible impacts will likely result from an increase in the magnitude and frequency of natural disasters, which will affect the resilience of local communities and the operational demands placed on emergency management systems (FEMA, n. d. ). Climate change can have a negative impact on the emergency management mission areas and long-term vision of reducing physical and economic loss from disasters in three primary ways (FEMA, 2012). These include impacts on mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery operations, the resiliency of critical infrastructure and various emergency assets, and triggering indirect impacts population displacement, migration, public health risks among them that increase mission risks (FEMA, 2012). While these nine drivers are not the only potential forces of change, any one of them alone may challenge some emergency management policies and procedures (FEMA, n. d. ). In combination, significant developments may converge to trigger dramatic change, which would likely test the readiness and resilience of the emergency management system as it exists today (FEMA, 2012).

Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans showed that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Regarding changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground, there is high confidence that natural systems are affected (FEMA, 2012). Examples are the enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes, increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions, changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also predators high in the food chain (FEMA, 2012). Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following effects on hydrological systems are occurring, increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glaciers- and snow-fed rivers, warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality (FEMA, 2012). Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following effects on hydrological systems are occurring, increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glaciers- and snow-fed rivers, warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality (FEMA, 2012). There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a broader range of species, that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as an earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying, poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species (FEMA, 2012).

Unpredictable Event with the Most Significant Positive Impact on FEMA in the next 10-20 Years Many of FEMA's tasks and responsibilities and recovery operations and programs often go unnoticed by the public (FEMA, 2018). A great example of the lesser known roles of FEMA's 7 assistance comes through the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) program (FEMA, 2018). In simple terms, GIS uses cutting-edge technology to aid recovering communities by providing the means to gather, analyze and utilize a broad spectrum of data from topography to political and governmental boundaries as well as population and demographics (FEMA, 2018). The information provided by GIS serves to help communities in many different aspects of recovery and community planning in the wake of a disaster (FEMA, 2018). GIS works with local governmental and non-profit entities as well as the Governor's Office of Recovery and Renewal at the request of FEMA's Long Term Community Recovery (LTCR) (FEMA, 2018). GIS analysis capabilities are a part of the technical assistance package LTCR provides to local governments, the state and non-profit community rebuilding partners to help with residential developments in weak areas with dilapidated housing (FEMA, 2018). By using GIS analysis, FEMA can communities by providing the technology to develop a strategy for improving housing and with recovery process (FEMA, 2018). All of the technology and data collected by FEMA's GIS team is handed over to the communities to utilize (FEMA, 2018). In short, using tools such as GIS could have a positive impact on FEMA in the next two decades because it will help with the recovery process.

Likewise, another event that could have a favorable consequence on FEMA is the creation of hurricane forecasting tools and storm modifiers technology that can modify storms. More specifically, when an intensified storm starts forming, the technology can be used as a tool to cool the ocean to weaken tropical systems and storm and to prevent the strong storm from forming into a hurricane (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). Modifying hurricanes would include controlling the storms by cooling the ocean to decrease the intensity of the hurricane (Birnbaum, 8 Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). Advanced mass transit system defensible against a storm. Additionally, hurricane forecasting tools such remote control buoys with GPS to positioned in the path of the storm with real-life data to be able to measure the winds and be able to move with the hurricane and measure sea spread (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). A fleet of drones that can fly over the hurricane that would also provide real-life data at all hights from the service to the top of the hurricane (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). Advancement in space satellite technology would provide new images every 30 seconds instead of every 30 minutes with over megapixel that would show more details (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). All of these would improve the track and intensity forecast of a hurricane (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). Tracking climate trends, relative sea level rise, and floodwalls would help in projecting the plausibility of an unforeseen event such as a Category 6 hurricane and to help better prepare for it (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015).

Wild Cad Scenario – Risks and Vulnerabilities

The first step in a risk management program is a threat assessment (Renfore & Smith, 2016). A threat assessment considers the full spectrum of threats (i. e. , natural, criminal, terrorist, accidental, etc. ) for a given facility and location (Renfore & Smith, 2016). The assessment must examine supporting information to evaluate the relative likelihood of occurrence for each threat (Renfore & Smith, 2016). For natural threats, historical data concerning frequency of occurrence for given natural disasters such as tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, fire, or earthquakes can be used to determine the credibility of the given threat (Renfore & Smith, 2016). To choose the best small number of scenarios to consider, scenario practice begins with the challenge facing the decision https://hazards. fema. gov/femaportal/wps/portal9 makers, ranks the most significant driving forces according to their level of uncertainty and their impact on trends seemingly relevant to that decision, and then creates a handful of scenarios that explore different manifestations of those driving forces (Fukuyama, 2007).

Once the plausible threats are identified, a vulnerability assessment must be performed (Renfore & Smith, 2016). A vulnerability assessment is an in-depth analysis of the infrastructure to identify its weaknesses and lack of redundancy and determine mitigations or corrective actions that can be designed or implemented to reduce the vulnerabilities (FEMA, n. d. ). A vital component of the vulnerability assessment is appropriately evaluating the impact of loss and vulnerability loss which could vary from one location to another (Renfore & Smith, 2016). The vulnerability assessment considers the potential impact of loss as well as the vulnerability of the location (Renfore & Smith, 2016). Impact of loss is the degree to which the mission of the agency is impaired by the threat (Renfore & Smith, 2016). Nowadays scenarios help emergency management and leaders embracing the unknown encouraging them to imagine the consequences of a seemingly improbable future without requiring them to believe that a certain scenario will take place (Fukuyama, 2007).

Accordingly, a wildcard scenario would include a Category 6 hurricane, stronger than Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Michael, with winds of over 160 mph. The trends and driving forces would include continued global warming resulting in more than ten billion gallons of rain per year, high sea level of about 2 feet per year, subsidence (sinking of the land), high storm surge, a million acres of lost wetlands which protect the inland from storm surge, and weakened human-made defenses (i. e. sinking levee systems built from non-durable material and failing floodwalls) (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). The lost of the wetland would result in 10 lack of hurricane safeguard and higher waves breaking closer to where people live (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). Due to global warming, this hurricane will be wetter producing over 20 inches of rain (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). The hurricane in this wildcard scenario would annihilate everything within an eighth of a mile and has damaged everything within a quarter of a mile inland, pushing the water farther inland, flooding neighborhoods, subdivisions, and low lying marshal areas (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). As a result of the hurricane, there would be a power outage, demolished structures, and a high number of fatalities.

Further, the land would be inhabitable due to the massive damage in the infrastructures as e. g. , buildings, roads, and power supplies that encompass everything needed for a place to be habitable and for the functioning of a society. In a wildcard scenario such as this one, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) would face numerous challenges that would have to be addressed and dealt with by assessing the Agency’s risks and vulnerabilities. First, FEMA would have to evaluate the damages such as infrustructre, human fatalities, and animal loss as well as employ first responder teams. Then, the Agency would have to assess the timespan it would take to rebuild communities and would have to estimate the costs and fees to restore the damaged physical and organizational structures and facilities which could be in the vicinity of billions of dollars. Once preliminary assessments have been completed, FEMA would have to commence with housing and monetary assistance for the survivors and start allocating resources where they are needed to help with the recovery process. 11 A hurricane is not a human-made threat and it is, therefore, an unpredictable target. While a natural threat such as a hurricane or a tornado could be anticipated knowing that it is inevitable, it is difficult and challenging to predict its exact path and the impact it would have.

Consequently, the outcome of such a wildcard scenario would be unprecedented. Correspondingly, to be prepared for such a wildcard scenario, FEMA would need a resistant system in place, data build on future risks to have a more resilient system in place, hurricane surge riks management teams to estimate surge heights and help build stronger surge walls consistent with insurance programs, as well as more resilient infrastructure such as buildings with higher elevations (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). If the Agency’s emergency management leaders do not anticipate a wildcard scenario such as a Category 6 hurricane, FEMA would be at risk and would be vulnerable to such a threat because it would be unprepared. A key rule of resilience is expecting a surprise and think the unthinkable (Birnbaum, Sappington, & Zimmett, 2015). As such, FEMA would have to integrate wildcard scenarios into their strategic plan to become more resilient and to educate the nation how to be more prepared.

Conclusion

A scenario is a story describing potential future conditions and their emergence to facilitate sense-making and to inform decision making (Masys, 2012). By revealing the uncertainty, emergency management, leaders, and organizations open up the notion that more than one future is potentially open (Masys, 2012). Scenario planning provides alternative perspectives of the problem space such as scoping, trend analysis, building scenarios, generating options, testing options, and creating an action plan (Masys, 2012). Accordingly, macro changes in targets and threats outside the enterprise are shaping the risk and security landscape over the next decade (Masys, 2012). Visibility into these anticipated changes will help strategic planning leaders dissect future security and risk practices and uncover new opportunities (Gartner, 2013).