Effective Volcano Eruption Predictions Using GPS

Volcanic Event Predicitions Using Gps

Technology and Solution

Volcanoes erupt randomly, therefore, volcanic prediction systems were created. For accurate predictions, the volcano’s vital signs are monitored using various tools. Deformation of the ground surface surrounding a volcano can give signals of pressure changes in the magma chamber through deformation measurements. Ground deformation monitoring using Global Positioning Systems has been an imperative method used at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. Using a group of satellites and radio waves, the position of a stationary pin on the flank of the volcano can be measured to within a couple millimetres in a few minutes. To use GPS data for volcano monitoring, receivers are placed around a volcano as a GPS network to record data.

History

The first ground deformation associated with an eruption was by Omori in 1914. His investigations displayed ground displacements on Mt. Usu in Japan of 2 metres when conduction levelling surveys before and after the eruption. With advances in GPS techniques in the 1980s, it was realised GPS is suited to monitor deformation caused by tectonic motion, ground subsidence and volcanic activity. The first GPS survey to be completed in a volcanic area was in Iceland, 1986. One of the first continuous GPS networks was in March 1988 on Izu Peninsula in Japan. Observations of this network led to the first GPS measurements of surface deformation.

Jobs

To predict volcanic eruptions, multiple professions are required like volcanologists. Volcanologists understand why volcanoes erupt, predict eruptions and analyse their impacts. Physical volcanologists study processes that control volcanic eruptions. The data collected gives volcanologists information about when volcanoes will erupt. Geodesic volcanologists look at deformation of the ground from a volcano’s eruption. The job request for Volcanologists is anticipated to grow 16% in 10 years, as people are becoming more aware of the risks involved. Volcanologists require a bachelor's degree in geology, geophysics, or earth science. However, a bachelor's degree provides little knowledge of volcanoes therefore, most Volcanologists possess higher degrees.

Specific Examples of Use

Global Positioning Systems are used to monitor volcanoes such as Soufriere Hills in Montserrat and Kilauea in Hawaii. The Kilauea volcano is one of the most active volcanoes. GPS has been used to monitor deformation at it since 1987. Two continuously operating GPS sites were cooperatively placed by HVO and Stanford University in 1995. Presently, there are 12 GPS installations on Kilauea.

Future direction

GPS are constantly advancing. USGS volcanologists are testing a prototype of a completely automated ground-deformation system, meaning volcanologists will not need to hike volcanoes. Scientists from France have been the first to predict the behaviour of a volcano with data assimilation techniques, using satellite and mathematical calculations to make estimates based on the effect moving magma has on Earth. The satellites use GPS and radar to measure the deformation of the Earth's surface as magma travels underneath. The scientists have started trialling their technique on the Grímsvötn Volcano in Iceland and Okmok Volcano in Alaska.

The Need for Predicting Volcanoes with GPS

Where in the world is the technology/solution commonly used?

GPS technology is used to predict when volcanoes will erupt, therefore, it’d be used near active volcanoes close to people. The Ring of Fire contains 452 volcanoes areas of seismic activity. The border of tectonic plates is where most seismic activity takes place and where most of the volcanoes are located. As many volcanoes are situated in the Ring of Fire, they need to be monitored carefully with instruments, including GPS.

Earth’s Composition

Earth is made of three layers. At the centre is the core, consisting of the inner and outer core. The inner core is solid, contains iron and has a 1220 km radius. The outer core is liquid, 2180 km thick and composed of a nickel-iron alloy. The mantle is 2,890 km deep and mostly made of silicate rocks rich in magnesium and iron. Intense heat causes rocks to rise then cool and sink to the core. This convection current is thought to cause tectonic plates to move. Finally, Earth's crust is made of oxygen, silicon, aluminium, iron, calcium, sodium, potassium and magnesium. It varies from 8-30 kilometres deep and is divided into tectonic plates that float on the mantle, colliding, diverging and sliding, forming landforms.

Tectonic Plates and Type of Plate Movement Here

Earth’s crust is composed of sections called tectonic plates which move in various ways at plate boundaries. Volcanoes often form in areas where tectonic plates interact. Converging plates can be either oceanic crust, continental crust, or one of each. Volcanoes for when at least one of the plates colliding is oceanic and subducts. At divergent plate boundaries, magma rock rises into the space between the plates when they are diverging. As the magma rock travels upward it rises higher in the mantle. The rock is under lower pressure and so it melts. Lava erupts through long cracks in the ground, or fissures. Sometimes volcanoes can be formed in the middle of tectonic plates due to places called hotspots. These hotspots are weak spots in the Earth's crust (under oceanic or continental crust) where lots of hot magma is created.

Volcanoes

Volcanos are landforms where boiling material from inside Earth erupts at the surface. The material can include gases like steam and hydrogen sulphide, ash made of fine rock particles, lava or lumps of volcanic rocks. Volcanoes form where magma has gathered below weak spots in the crust. The magma is occasionally pushed upwards into the volcano and when it reaches the surface it’s known as lava. This lava changes colour as it cools, from light to dark.

Societal Impacts

Current benefits of technology/solution

Predicting volcanoes using GPS has benefits like saving lives and decreasing fear. As GPS give signals to when a volcano will erupt, people nearby will have time to evacuate and feel safer as they know they will have time to evacuate. Whilst these are a couple of benefits there are heaps more.

Contributions to society (now and in future)

Predicting volcanoes using GPS contribute to society now and in the future. With warnings being sent out, there’ll be time to move expensive equipment. When the equipment is moved, it’ll not be damaged when the volcano erupts and therefore save millions of dollars to replace them. This is just one example of a contribution to society however, there are more.